356
ACUS11 KWNS 072055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072055
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...
VALID 072055Z - 072300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR, MAINLY, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE, OR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED FURTHER DOWNWARD
MIXING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS WITH CONTINUING DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD
OF CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU, WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS SURFACE TROUGHING
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE TROUGH, IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE.
EASTWARD, AND PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CREST OF THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, COOL TO COLD AND STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS
EITHER BEING MAINTAINED OR SLOW TO ERODE. AS STRONGER STORMS CROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEY SHOULD TEND
TO WEAKEN WITH DIMINISHING RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 42577894 42257844 41197882 40587876 40017903 39557942
39167980 38748078 38988157 39928074 42577894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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