013
ACUS11 KWNS 072103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072102
TXZ000-072230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072102Z - 072230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY WITH AN ONGOING CELL IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...AS A SOUTHWARD-MOVING, CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM --
PARTICULARLY WITH A SUPERCELL TRACKING EASTWARD FROM UVALDE. MUCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION ALONG THE MODIFIED
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, WITH STORMS CONTINUING TO POSE SUCH A THREAT
EVEN AFTER BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..HALBERT/GUYER.. 03/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28120005 28620030 29110043 29600042 29820017 29919986
29919920 29919855 30069765 30049736 29899704 29549685
29089685 28679690 28309708 28039749 27899792 27899840
27919938 28120005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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