584
FNUS21 KWNS 081630
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2026
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGHLIGHTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CST SUN MAR 08 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS
NOTED IN EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH FURTHER DEEPENING ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
INITIALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES STRENGTHENS LATER
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND EASTERN MT/WY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FOCUSED LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OUT OF NM
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SAMPLING SINGLE-DIGIT DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHERN NM, WHICH IS
AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. ASIDE FROM RAP
SOLUTIONS, RECENT GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE ASSIMILATING THIS VERY DRY
AIR MASS WELL AND DEPICTS RH MINIMUMS IN THE 10-15% RANGE AS THE AIR
MASS IS ADVECTED EAST. FORECAST CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-35 MPH PROBABLE. BASED ON RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND SUBSTANTIAL MONTHLY RAINFALL DEFICITS (AROUND 5% OF NORMAL),
FUELS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW TRAVERSING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TODAY. THIS WILL REGIONALLY AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT. THE COMBINED EFFECT
WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MT AND
WY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOTED IN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS, WHICH YIELDED 20-25% RH MINIMUMS SATURDAY DESPITE THE
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. SIMILAR HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. NONETHELESS, FUELS REMAIN
RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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