501
ACUS11 KWNS 081757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081756
082030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081756Z - 082030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH 3-5 PM EDT, SOME
OF WHICH MAY POSE A RISK FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN STILL APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK, BUT SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION
IS ONGOING ALONG A BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE AND CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING SOUTH OF COLUMBIA SC THROUGH THE GREENVILLE NC
VICINITY. WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S,
IT APPEARS THAT MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG,
WITH INHIBITION ERODING BENEATH MODESTLY SHEAR 30-35 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR,
AND IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INITIATE LEADING TO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 19-21Z.
THIS MAY BE AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW BEGINNING TO
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL, SOME STRENGTHENING OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS
STORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK
FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOWER THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AIDED BY MELTING HAIL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
..KERR/GUYER.. 03/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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