544
ACUS03 KWNS 081933
SWODY3
SPC AC 081933
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST LOW-LATITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MX AND THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD NORTHERN-STREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A
QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES VICINITY FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. ALONG AND EAST OF THESE FEATURES, A
BROAD/EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF ALL HAZARDS ACROSS A BROAD AREA, THE SPLIT-FLOW NATURE OF THE
PATTERN LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.
..MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT, A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RESULTING IN LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS. GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY, SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES (SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG) AND SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR, ANY ESTABLISHED STORMS THAT
EVOLVE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
TORNADO RISK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY
LOW.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. EVENTUALLY, LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH, WHEN THE SEVERE-WIND AND TORNADO RISK
MAY INCREASE INTO CENTRAL TX. A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OK, WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS EVIDENT.
..WEINMAN.. 03/08/2026
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