146
ACUS11 KWNS 091210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091210
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR AND FAR
NORTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091210Z - 091415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK THIS MORNING, WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME AND IN ADVANCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OK. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG FROM NORTH TX
INTO AR, WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE ONLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH ANY SUSTAINED ROBUST UPDRAFTS BECOMING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH MID MORNING. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MS, WHEN
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CELLS AND/OR CLUSTERS.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 03/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35199666 35749427 35639267 35409202 34869173 33969238
33309381 33119480 33129553 33309636 33579692 34239717
35199666
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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