821
ACUS11 KWNS 091704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091703
MSZ000-ARZ000-091830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...
VALID 091703Z - 091830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #28, AND WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MS -- WHERE A NEW WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AR, WITH DEEPER/EMBEDDED CORES NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
STREAMING NORTHWARD AMID FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING, THE STRONGER
CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
MAY REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER
CLUSTER. WITH TIME, THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS, WITH ADDITIONAL WARM-ADVECTION-DRIVEN
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE. INCREASING BUOYANCY INTO THIS CORRIDOR
AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, A
DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
..WEINMAN.. 03/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34669373 35029346 35139268 35219162 35119106 34769006
34428972 33948976 33409013 33209064 33229113 33729312
33969360 34279383 34669373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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