941
ACUS11 KWNS 091812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091812
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091812Z - 092015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING GUSTS, MARGINAL HAIL, AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED/BRIEF TORNADO
RISK.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN A ZONE OF BROAD/WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LA, DIURNAL HEATING AMID LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS IS
AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION AND REMOVAL OF INHIBITION. AS A RESULT, A
MODEST UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. WHILE THE LINGERING INHIBITION AND
GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CAST UNCERTAINTY ON
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION/LONGEVITY, AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT) AND SMALL CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER/LONGER-LIVED STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, THOUGH
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL STREAMWISE VORTICITY MAY
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED/BRIEF TORNADO RISK AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH, THOUGH
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101
32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229
30389313 30509363 30829390
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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