558
ACUS03 KWNS 091926
SWODY3
SPC AC 091925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY.
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS AN EXPANSIVE WARM
SECTOR STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC BY 12 UTC
THURSDAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AND WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
..EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND/OR CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING, ALBEIT WEAKENING, ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK AT THE START OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING, ASCENT AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH, AND FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LA AND MS.
STORM-MOTION VECTORS LARGELY ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LINEAR
STORM MODE AND SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SEVERE WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS BUOYANCY INCREASES BUT BEFORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
DECREASES AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
..OH VALLEY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A REMNANT EML WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH THE TRANSLATION OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY WITHIN A NARROW, BUT
MIGRATORY, WARM SECTOR FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. STRONG FLOW IN
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER JET WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, MOST LIKELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND LINES
CAPABLE OF SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. RECENT
EXTENDED-RANGE RRFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS WITHIN A DIFFUSE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION
SUGGEST THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER GUIDANCE ALSO
DEPICTS THIS PLUME OF THETA-E ADVECTION, WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE
TO THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE RRFS IS TYPICALLY OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY, AND RECENT MPAS SOLUTIONS ARE LESS
BULLISH ON DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL INSOLATION TO SOME DEGREE. THIS
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER RISK PROBABILITIES,
BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WITHIN
THIS REGIME.
..MOORE.. 03/09/2026
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