168
ACUS11 KWNS 092021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092021
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-092145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092021Z - 092145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY 21 UTC.
DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AMIDST FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING
HAS YIELDED INCREASING BUOYANCY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH THIS CLUSTER AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLUSTER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND
35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WITH TIME, A MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY, LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WHILE TRENDS REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN, A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 03/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 33398604 33458666 33628764 33788823 33918861 34098880
34388884 34698873 34918852 35008832 35108781 35138724
35058681 34938626 34798573 34608543 34458535 34208519
33898516 33598530 33428561 33398604
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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