717
ACUS11 KWNS 092342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092342
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092342Z - 100145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A STORM OR TWO MAY PERSIST THIS EVENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS HAVE LED TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHILE THE PRIMARY LIFT IS WITH THE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN AL, SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MS AND INTO EASTERN LA.
THE VWP FROM HDC SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT, WITH 35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AS WELL AS 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2. GIVEN THE
UNCAPPED AIR MASS AND FAVORABLY SHAPED HODOGRAPH, SOME CELLS HAVE
EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL THIS EVENING, THE NUMBER AND
INTENSITY OF CELLS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. IN THE SHORT TERM,
LOCALIZED HAIL, A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL/HART.. 03/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30829104 31269068 31888982 32098872 31848813 31408798
30768828 30578884 30539051 30829104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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