094
FNUS21 KWNS 101639
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 101700Z - 111200Z
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA WERE NUDGED
EASTWARD AND TRIMMED SLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ALONG NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS DAY 1/TUESDAY
OUTLOOK. EXPANSION OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA WAS CONSIDERED
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TRANS PECOS AS WELL, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION APPEARED FAVORED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY STORM COVERAGE NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA.
SIMILARLY, THE ELEVATED AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED SURGE OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE STRONGER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS LEADING TO SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
CRITICAL AREA BEING DRAWN. PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL SEE
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL BUT THE AREAL
EXTENT REMAINS LIMITED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG
WINDS BUT HIGHER RHS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0215 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WILL
INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK DRAGGING A
TRAILING DRYLINE WITH IT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE DRYLINE AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WHERE LIGHTNING MAY INTERACT WITH DRY FUELS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD, THE INITIAL SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. A SECONDARY LEE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER KS/OK AT THE APEX OF THE DRYLINE. THIS, ALONG WITH
STRONG FLOW ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE HUMIDITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE OVERLY
LOW OWING TO CLOUD COVER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW OVER NM, POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WEST
OF THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT 20-30% RH VALUES AMID WESTERLY WIND OF
20-30 MPH. ELEVATED AND BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX
AND FAR EASTERN NM DESPITE THE MODEST RH MINIMUMS. CONFIDENCE IN
BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND REGION
AND THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND LOWER
RH MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, INDICATIVE OF
MOISTURE ABOVE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 0.8 OF AN
INCH AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
GIVEN STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40 KNOTS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS
RELATIVELY HIGH, THE EXACT COVERAGE, AND DRYLINE POSITION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THE ISODRYT AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE LIKELY IN THE DAY1 UPDATE
AS DRYLINE PLACEMENT AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/LOCATION DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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