468
ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY. TWO UPPER WAVES - EVIDENT IN EARLY-AFTERNOON WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO - WILL
TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION
OF THE NORTHERN WAVE IS EXPECTED AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG BROAD-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AND WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET WILL
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT POLEWARD MOISTURE
RETURN AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY 12 UTC THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST.
..UPPER OH VALLEY
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SEVERE WIND, AND PERHAPS TORNADO, POTENTIAL MAY
EMERGE ACROSS OH INTO PARTS OF WV AND WESTERN PA WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN A SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL 40-50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER OVERSPREADING THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WITHIN THIS
STRONG FLOW FIELD, GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED PLUME OF
HIGHER THETA-E VALUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS. THE INTERSECTION OF THE STRONG FLOW WITH SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
REGIONALLY HIGHER BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH (ON THE ORDER
OF 200-300 M2/S2) FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY PERTAINS TO ANTECEDENT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RESIDUAL CONVECTION FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY,
THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. SPARSE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD HELP
MAXIMIZE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND WILL SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT. GREATER COVERAGE OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL ACT TO
MODULATE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY MUTING THE INFLUENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RICHER MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS, UPDRAFT/UH SIGNALS IN CAM ENSEMBLES AND RECENT
CALIBRATED GUIDANCE DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR EASTERN IN INTO OH, WV, AND SOUTHWEST PA. INCREASED WIND
PROBABILITIES (30%) HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WHERE
ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITHIN A STRONG FLOW FIELD WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS. HIGHER RISK CATEGORIES MAY BE
NEEDED IF MORNING STORM COVERAGE IS MINIMAL AND A MORE POTENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EMERGES.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE GREATER TEXARKANA REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME MODULATION IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS, CONTINUED LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PROMOTE ALONG-BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS
AND MAINTAIN A LINEAR STORM MODE THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST, ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE,
PRE-LINE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS
AS HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT ERODES WEAK CAPPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. KINEMATIC PROFILES - CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH - WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN DISPARITY BETWEEN 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS AND
MODEST SIGNALS IN CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
..MOORE.. 03/10/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page