688
ACUS11 KWNS 101835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101835
TXZ000-102030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE BIG COUNTRY IN WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101835Z - 102030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND CONCHO VALLEY. VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED BY 21Z.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS, ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHWEST MEXICO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE WARM-MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE WEST TX DRYLINE CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE, WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY PREVALENT TOWARDS CENTRAL TX.
18Z FWD SOUNDING SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED EML WITH SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN,
LIKELY LIMITING INITIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL TO WEST OF THE RESIDUAL
STRATOCUMULUS DECK LINGERING OVER CENTRAL TX.
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EMANATE OUT OF THE HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND CONCHO VALLEY. WITH ROBUST
SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES, WIND PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS AND
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE LATTER
SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH NORTHERN/NORTHEAST EXTENT, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY.
THE VERY LARGE HAIL TO GIANT HAIL THREAT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
TORNADO RISK SHOULD TEND TO BE CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE
LARGER BUOYANCY AND MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IMPINGE ON AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD A
COUPLE LONG-TRACK/INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 03/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29870232 31380170 31400164 32000123 32590064 33079997
32949907 32099859 31019859 30389888 29519955 28819996
28520041 29870232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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