375
ACUS11 KWNS 101853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101853
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-102130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101853Z - 102130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT
FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING HAIL TO 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
A RISK FOR MULTIPLE STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES (EF2-3+). WHILE THE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, A
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING
CUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-TO-MID
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST,
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE), STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM, AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
50+ KTS WILL SUPPORT A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. VERY LARGE HAIL OF 2+
INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY MODEST PER THE ILX 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AND VWP, A
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR AN
ACCOMPANYING STRONG INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RESULTANT ENLARGED/CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT INTENSE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH
SUPERCELLS AND AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES (SOME WITHIN THE
EF2-3+ RANGE) ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO COVER THESE THREATS.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 03/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41039205 41309188 41529106 41559007 41658890 41658791
41688721 41568648 41408623 41198615 40888630 40678675
40518715 40448741 40288838 40248898 40228965 40219039
40209104 40329153 40479192 40599207 41039205
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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