955
FNUS22 KWNS 101911
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE JUST
PASSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS A DRIER ENVIRONMENT, WITH MINIMUM RHS OF 15-25%, OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST TRENDS ALSO
DEPICT THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS NECESSITATES THE EXPANSION OF THE
ELEVATED AREA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE ELEVATED WINDS/RH WILL LIKELY
EXIST FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING, COLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PRECEDING
PRECIPITATION, SOME OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW, WILL LIMIT
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE TRANS PECOS, LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA,
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER. LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR,
ALTHOUGH PEAK HEATING WILL MIX STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0216 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY RECOMBINE AS THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND APPALACHIANS D2/WED. RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY BEHIND IT. SOME FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WHERE DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MODESTLY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS D2/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE RH VALUES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY LOW (GENERALLY ABOVE 30%) GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN NE INTO WESTERN KS AND
TX/OK. THIS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GENERALLY THE OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND RH BELOW CRITERIA APPEARS
MINIMAL WITH HUMIDITY QUICKLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM THE PRIOR DAY CASTS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED ELEVATED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME DRYING APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. EXPANSION IS
POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS, PENDING PRECIPITATION AND FRONTAL
TIMING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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