861
ACUS03 KWNS 101913
SWODY3
SPC AC 101912
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AS IT
BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL START THE FORECAST
PERIOD DRAPED FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES, AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST AND STALLING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS BROAD-SCALE
ASCENT WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN AL,
WESTERN GA, AND THE FL PANHANDLE. LINGERING 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL
FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS - MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
INTENSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GIVEN LINEAR/CLUSTERED STORM MODES AND
A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DIURNAL BUOYANCY
MINIMUM. REGARDLESS, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY
AS CONVECTION DRIFTS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DIMINISHING FORCING FOR ASCENT.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST KILOMETER MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TOO LIMITED FOR RISK PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE.. 03/10/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page