903
ACUS11 KWNS 102241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102241
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-110045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 102241Z - 110045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW STRONG
HEATING OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MODIFIED FRONTAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHEASTERN IA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AS A
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE HAS DEEPEND ALONG THE INFLECTION OF THE FRONT.
WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING FROM THE WEST AMID MODERATE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE FRONT AND BECOME
ELEVATED. HOWEVER, THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN
IA. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN
SLIGHTLY VEERED SURFACE WINDS, BUT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES (SOME STRONG) ARE
POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR. INITIAL TOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOWN
SIGNS OF DEEPENING, AND RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF MO AFTER 00Z WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS. GIVEN THIS, A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS
LIKELY NEEDED, THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..LYONS.. 03/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40619086 40549053 40129037 39409030 38899042 38669120
37519481 37659520 37949539 38499539 39539474 40049432
40519360 40769290 40739205 40699148 40619086
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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