848
ACUS11 KWNS 110254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110254
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 110254Z - 110530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LINEAR/MCS, THOUGH EMBEDDED CELLS ARE NOTED
AT TIMES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE
RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT STATES, WITH
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FURTHER,
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. FOR INSTANCE, THE SGF VWP INDICATES OVER 500 M2/S2 0-1 SRH,
WITH NEARLY 400 M2/S2 AT INX WHICH IS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TORNADOES.
CONDITIONALLY, IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LINES OF STORMS, CONDITIONS WOULD CLEARLY FAVOR
TORNADOES. IF THE STORM MODE REMAINS LARGELY LINEAR, CORRIDORS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES MAY STILL YIELD A TORNADO.
..JEWELL/HART.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35309659 37339614 37879571 38079488 38069434 37819358
37229334 36559337 34339433 33829481 33799549 33979649
34659672 35309659
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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