117
ACUS11 KWNS 110808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110808
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-110945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA AND SOUTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110808Z - 110945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST TX, WITH THE BULK OF DEEPER CONVECTION
APPEARING TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF A EXPANSIVE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITHIN A MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW, WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. INCREASING
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX MAY ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE FROM PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX.
SOME WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED ON THE KSHV VWP, BUT
EFFECTIVE SRH REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
THREAT, IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL.
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TO MATURE WITHIN THIS REGIME, GIVEN THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND A TENDENCY FOR THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TO BECOME FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BEGIN TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31729649 33209436 33839342 33829274 33419242 32809297
32279372 31229554 31299636 31729649
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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