638
ACUS11 KWNS 111213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111213
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111213Z - 111415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LA AND EAST TX. A GENERAL INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH TIME AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM WEST TX. SOME WEAKENING AND VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED IN REGIONAL VWPS, BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS FAVORABLE, AND SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN THE SHORT
TERM, THOUGH THE STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY, IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 33819108 31949264 30509388 29189596 28729680 28899701
29649682 30039639 31319511 33749244 34509213 34969137
34829080 34629053 33819108
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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