860
ACUS11 KWNS 111249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111249
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN...OH...NORTHERN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...
VALID 111249Z - 111415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW (50-60
KT AT 1 KM AGL FROM THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING AND REGIONAL VWPS) WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THIS QLCS, DESPITE
THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT TO ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AN MCV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN A WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING, AS CONVECTION SPREADS TOWARD EASTERN IN
AND WESTERN OH. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN
MATURE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LINE. LOCAL EXPANSION OF WW 41
AND/OR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, DEPENDING
ON SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION, SOME RECOVERY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
ILX...
LAT...LON 40198611 40748483 41098338 41158205 40608156 39508172
38908324 38078529 37708701 37778773 37878795 38378812
38988717 39178702 40198611
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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