893
ACUS11 KWNS 111516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111515
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-111745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX TO MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111515Z - 111745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOWARDS
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF BROKEN CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS/MID-SOUTH VICINITY. CLOUD
BREAKS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE AIDING IN GRADUAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION FROM MS SOUTHWESTWARD, WHERE MODERATE MLCAPE FROM
1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BECOME PERVASIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EMANATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TX VICINITY, WHERE A COMBINATION OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING, COUPLED WITH
STRONGER/SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN
STRENGTHENING OF A QLCS THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED, YIELDING A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, WITH
A STRONG ONE POSSIBLE.
FARTHER NORTHEAST, WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINE-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY SUPPORT LESS COVERAGE/AMPLITUDE OF SEVERE
INITIALLY. BUT PRE-OUTFLOW CONFLUENCE BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST MS MAY AID IN SUPERCELL FORMATION DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AS THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW APPROACHES.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
HGX...
LAT...LON 29979640 30859607 31759395 33589136 35138990 35828889
36338752 36228691 35858674 34248794 32678951 31199210
29819358 28999654 29979640
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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