532
ACUS11 KWNS 111540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111540
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...42...
VALID 111540Z - 111745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41, 42 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AREAS NEAR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER ACTIVITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 41 OR POTENTIALLY A
NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EVIDENT WITHIN PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. A FEW
UPDRAFTS WITHIN SOUTHERN INDIANA HAVE SHOWN SOME MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
(MODEST ROTATION PER REGIONAL 88D VELOCITY DATA). WITH TIME,
CONTINUED HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS (LOW/MID 60S F DEWPOINTS) WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE HEATING IS GREATEST AT THIS
TIME. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HAIL THREAT WILL
PRIMARILY DEPEND ON HOW DISCRETE ACTIVITY REMAINS, THOUGH POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS RISK. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN HOW VEERED SURFACE FLOW HAS
BECOME. EVEN SO, AN INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON LEADING TO ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH FOR A TORNADO RISK
WITH DISCRETE STORMS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 41 (NOMINALLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
AT NOON EDT) OR POTENTIALLY A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..WENDT/GLEASON.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 38498628 39368456 39908284 39758245 39288238 38578251
38328261 38288274 38178404 38048527 38228609 38498628
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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