822
FNUS21 KWNS 111605
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
THE ELEVATED AREA OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN TRIMMED ON
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FLANKS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT WETTING RAINS AND
LINGERING SNOW COVER NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CONVERSELY, THE AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO
ALIGN WITH LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH
OF THE DRY AIR MASS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, RECENT PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY PROVIDES A SUFFICIENT FUEL-MOISTURE BUFFER TO
PRECLUDE FURTHER EXPANSION.
OTHERWISE, REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE ELEVATED AREA OVER SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. A LARGE FIRE EMERGED NORTHWEST OF
AMARILLO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH GROWTH ONLY EXACERBATED BY THE
WIND SWITCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT TODAY, THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS IS COOL ENOUGH THAT RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (20%+), PREVENTING ANY UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND CURED FUELS
WARRANTS CONTINUED VIGILANCE NEAR ACTIVE INCIDENTS.
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIND/RH WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY BELOW ANY CRITERIA.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0114 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER-MIDWEST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, WHILE A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIR
MASS, RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DRY, POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT A
WELL-MIXED, BUT SHALLOWER BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING UNDER INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WY, FAR NORTHEASTERN CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, EXPECTED PRECIPITATION, SOME IN THE FORM OF SNOW, IN
ADDITION TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT AN OTHERWISE
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS AREA. SUFFICIENT WIDESPREAD RH
REDUCTIONS BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING PEAK INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES, WITH BROAD ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
MAINTAINED WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND DRY FUELS ALIGN.
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST TX/ROLLING PLAINS AREA WHERE AFTERNOON RH BRIEFLY FALLS TO
AROUND 15 PERCENT AMID BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH.
..FAR SOUTH TEXAS
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN TX FOR
WEDNESDAY. DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTED BY AN EXITING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND EASTWARD SHUNTING OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL
IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN TX WEDNESDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
TX IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIMITING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TX. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20
MPH BEHIND AN EASTWARD MIXING DRY LINE, ALONG WITH MINIMUM DAYTIME
RH OF AROUND 15% SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
DRY FUELS WHERE MINIMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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