705
ACUS11 KWNS 111750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111750
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-111915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...45...
VALID 111750Z - 111915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42, 45 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME
STRENGTHENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FILTERED DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S F) IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KTS. AS INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE, WITH A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW (60+ KTS
AT 1 KM AGL PER THE PBZ VWP) WILL YIELD ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE MAY ALSO POSE A RISK
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 38398150 38448198 38518230 38658245 38868251 39128257
39448254 39698250 39848238 40008197 40318111 40468065
40578012 40587961 40607902 40507846 40267798 40097784
39897783 39587782 39277795 38977822 38707871 38507924
38427983 38388066 38398150
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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