779
FNUS22 KWNS 111933
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
THE NORTHERN EXTENTS OF BOTH THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED RISK AREAS
HAVE BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY, THE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED EASTWARD AS GUIDANCE TRENDS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY
AIR MASS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
NEW CRITICAL AREA NOW ENCOMPASSES BOTH PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREAS WITH
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ALSO NOW
INCLUDED. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PROVIDES MULTIPLE FORCING
MECHANISMS ACROSS THIS BROAD REGION, LOCALIZED AREAS, PARTICULARLY
IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO, MAY SEE TRANSIENT PERIODS WHERE WIND
AND RH THRESHOLDS ARE NOT PERFECTLY COINCIDENT.
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS, THE TIMING OF LOWEST RHS AND STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR OUT OF SYNC ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
THUS, THIS AREA DOESN'T MEET ELEVATED COMBINED WIND AND RH
THRESHOLDS. ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO BRING
LOCALIZED ELEVATED WIND AND RH CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
RECENT RAINFALL IS A MITIGATING FACTOR LIKELY KEEPING FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM DROPPING RHS ANY LOWER. BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BE
MONITORED AS FUTURE FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0147 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST MID-LEVEL JET AT THE APEX OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL IMPART AN EXPANSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FIELD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS D2/THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A RAPID TRANSITION TO A
DRY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, PROMOTING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
DEEP LAYER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND EVOLUTION OF A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER BY PEAK HEATING WILL SUPPORT STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY, SURFACE RH REDUCTIONS OF
20-30 PERCENT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD REDUCE A MORE EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WHERE THE STRONG WINDS, RH CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS ALIGN.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS AIDED BY A DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH EXPANSION WILL PROMOTE BROAD
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER CORRIDOR OF 20-25 MPH WINDS
FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY D2/THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALIGNING WITH RH AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT BY PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NM, TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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