601
ACUS01 KWNS 111959
SWODY1
SPC AC 111958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..20Z UPDATE
STORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OH VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS, THOUGH WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY. SOME TORNADO/WIND THREAT
PERSISTS WITH PERHAPS A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IN PA WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH A DIFFUSE NORTH-SOUTH
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
OTHERWISE, STORM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX. THE TN STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY
A WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST TX STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH SOME UPTICK IN THE
WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD. A SEPARATE/SMALL AREA WITH SOME WIND/HAIL
THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX.
..THOMPSON.. 03/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1131 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026/
..OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE EVENING
A SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND DEEPEN, IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INTO
OH/WESTERN PA/WV AS OF MIDDAY. CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAVE BEEN
PREVALENT THIS MORNING ACROSS OH/WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE OF A SUBTLE
MCV, AND THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHERN IN/NORTHERN KY INTO SOUTHERN OH/WV/WESTERN PA, AND STORMS
WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND WIND PROFILES WITH LONG
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT OF A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF
DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE THE THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST TX TO MS/AL THROUGH TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST TX, AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS.
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM A MIDLEVEL TROUGH (NOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU) WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS. THOUGH REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ARE
LIMITED IN THE MAIN PART OF THE MOIST SECTOR THIS MORNING, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING STORMS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
LARGELY ORIENTED ALONG THE CONVECTIVE BAND, WILL HELP MAINTAIN
CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS, THOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR
FAVORABLE STORM MERGERS INTO THE BAND OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
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