531
ACUS11 KWNS 112035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112034
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-112200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHERN MARYLAND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 45...
VALID 112034Z - 112200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 45 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 45. TORNADO WATCH 45 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO COVER THE CONTINUING SEVERE RISK, BUT A DOWNSTREAM WATCH APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAVE PRODUCED SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AND HAVE
OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. WHILE
BUOYANCY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR (250-500 J/KG
MLCAPE PER LATEST RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS) OWING TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN THE SHORT
TERM, A LOCALIZED ZONE OF MARGINALLY INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, INCLUDING THE
JUNIATA RIVER VALLEY, WHERE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AVAILABLE
BUOYANCY MAY BE A BIT HIGHER (LOCALLY UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE). OWING
TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS, TORNADO WATCH 45 HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO COVER THE CONTINUING SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, A DOWNSTREAM
WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OWING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 03/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 39538020 39788044 40088035 40377992 40517930 40587857
40667763 40667703 40607654 40497628 40357614 40197616
39967619 39607649 39447688 39287737 39237804 39227861
39307917 39407968 39538020
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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