542
ACUS11 KWNS 120458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120457
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-120700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...49...
VALID 120457Z - 120700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 48, 49 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THROUGH 2-4 AM EDT, WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL WARMING OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PERSIST, WITH OCCASIONAL STRENGTHENING
MESOVORTICES ALONG THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS SLOWED
IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, INCLUDING
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF SELMA. LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADER
WEAK MIGRATING SURFACE WAVE, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH FORECASTS
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF FLOW AROUND 850 MB IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH 06-08Z. GIVEN CONTINUING
INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST WEAK CAPE, ADDITIONAL
ENLARGEMENT OF CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL
SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..KERR.. 03/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 32958486 32638465 31848557 30458697 30278781 30338876
31698764 33128627 32958486
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page