422
ACUS11 KWNS 120826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120826
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL
AL...WESTERN/CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...
VALID 120826Z - 121000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN WIND-DAMAGE AND EMBEDDED TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AT 0825 UTC, A LONG-LIVED QLCS REMAINS RELATIVELY
VIGOROUS FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL GA. RECENT OBSERVED
WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUBSEVERE, THOUGH MESOVORTICES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALONG THE LINE FROM THE KMXX AND KEOX RADARS, WITH SOME
EVIDENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK (AS SAMPLED BY THE 06Z FFC SOUNDING), BUT RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
(GREATER WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENT). A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RECENTLY
BEEN OBSERVED FROM THE KEOX VWP. WHILE THE WIND PROFILE IS
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL, RATHER STRONG OBSERVED SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS (2-3 MB/2 HOURS) MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BACKING OF WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE. EVEN WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN VEERED,
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE,
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG THE LINE, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
..DEAN.. 03/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30188585 30298663 30258688 30318698 31488595 32598530
33428482 33708463 33918401 33958291 31868416 30178531
30188585
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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