035
FNUS21 KWNS 121642
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VALID 121700Z - 131200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETING MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THESE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAY 1/THURSDAY FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE,
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. WHILE THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SOMEWHAT IN FLUX, IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH KANSAS
ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE SURGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
SUNRISE ON DAY 2/FRIDAY AS IT LOSES STRENGTH. ONCE THE FRONT BEGINS
TO OUTPACE THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO PLACE. VERY STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 30-40 MPH
AND GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS, THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXTENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA, EXTREME WESTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST SUNSET OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BRINGING THE DURATION TO OVER 6 HOURS IN
THESE LOCALIZED AREAS. EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS OF WIND/RH AS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND DRIEST AIR WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY OUT OF SYNC IN THAT AREA.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0127 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS A STRONG AND
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE 100+ KT
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BRINGING DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WITH THE WINDS HAVING A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% WILL OVERLAP WITH
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA (CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW), PRIMARILY
ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA REACHING 35-40 MPH. HOWEVER, THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(25-35%) AND FUELS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME RECENT WETTING RAINFALL.
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAKER AROUND 25 MPH
BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS AT AROUND 10%
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page