594
ACUS11 KWNS 121913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121913
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-122115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121913Z - 122115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EXTREME WESTERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RAP-BASED MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW GIVEN VERY LIMITED
BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-20S
F). ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 30-60
MINUTES, HOWEVER, INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE MARGINALLY
DEEPER CORES. THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY AUGMENT VERY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW (40-50+ KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER
REGIONAL VWPS), SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 03/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46010338 46210355 46560356 46980335 47080291 47130202
47100106 46980030 46809925 46569812 46339742 45959639
45739627 45439613 45069622 44719654 44519716 44469798
44639906 44849990 45260102 45470168 45800267 46010338
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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