209
FNUS21 KWNS 141629
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND RESPONSE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
CO, SOUTHEAST WY, SOUTHWESTERN NE AND NORTHWESTERN KS WHERE 15-20
MPH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% WILL ALIGN
WITH DRY FUELS TO SUPPORT WILDFIRE SPREAD. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
EXTEND EASTWARD, ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES NOT EXCEEDING 30% WERE OBSERVED ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE CO FRONT RANGE, SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NM, PRECONDITIONING AN ALREADY RECEPTIVE
FUELSCAPE IN ADVANCE OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS WERE NUDGED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE WIND
GUSTS OF 50 MPH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY IN FOCUSED
TERRAIN GAPS AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE CO FRONT RANGE AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALIGN WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% AT TIMES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING OF A
VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
..TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
ACCELERATING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
CYCLONE ACROSS NE/KS, ARRIVAL STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPANDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AT LEAST SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD IMPEDE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
TX. ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REMAINING BELOW 25% AND DRY FUELS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY D2/SUNDAY PERIOD.
..WILLIAMS.. 03/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0100 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO AND SHIFT INTO NEBRASKA DEEPENING
RAPIDLY. MASS RESPONSE WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN
TIGHTENING OF WESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL (AND
LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO AND IN THE LEE OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REDUCTIONS 10-15% WILL OVERLAP SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
20-30 MPH. LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN MORE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS IN THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES, WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH 40-50 MPH AT TIMES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, WHERE SEVERAL FIRES ARE ONGOING. AS SUCH A
BROAD CRITICAL AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. WITHIN THESE
REGIONS, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BROADER ELEVATED CONCERNS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NE/KS/OK AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHERE SURFACE WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-25%.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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