058
ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH TORNADOES SHOULD
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WIND THREATS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME CENTERED FROM WI TO THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO LOWER MI,
DEEPENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS TO THE OH VALLEYS.
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TO CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY CHANGES WITH THE LEVEL 3-ENH RISK ARE TO INCLUDE A
10-PERCENT TORNADO AREA, SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF 45-PERCENT WIND, AND
ADDITION OF 15-PERCENT AND CIG1 HAIL AREAS. EXPANSION OF LEVEL
1-2/MRGL-SLGT RISK AREAS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAINLY
THE 06-12Z PERIOD MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT FOR WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME SEVERE, AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED ENVIRONMENT.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER A PORTION OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY, MIDDAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE HIGHLY CONVERGENT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS A PART OF THE
MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
SHALLOW, BEFORE DEEPENING AND GREATLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS IT IMPINGES ON RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND THE MID-SOUTH PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AN EXTENSIVELY LONG QLCS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
IL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
MOST FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE
PLUME NEAR THE FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES BEFORE SUPERCELLS BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BROADER QLCS DURING THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
ALSO YIELD AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED-OFF WARM-MOIST SECTOR FROM THE
MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY. DESPITE THIS ASPECT, SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF 700-MB WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, INITIALLY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY AND EXPANDING TO THE OH TO TN VALLEYS,
WILL YIELD A SETUP CONDUCTIVE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND SWATHS THROUGH THE EVENING.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES/REMAINS
MINIMAL. BUT THE VERY FAST LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD
PERSISTENCE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL EASTWARD
IN THE OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR RENEWED LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF/MERGING INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
QLCS. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A PERIOD OF INCREASED LARGE HAIL/SUSTAINED
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORED
FROM AT LEAST THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
..GRAMS.. 03/14/2026
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