087
FNUS22 KWNS 141951
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH D2/SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
..NEW MEXICO, WESTERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AMID AN ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE REGIME SHOULD RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN
TX. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% DURING PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS EXPECTED, FOLLOWING POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES OF 30% OR
LESS TO BEGIN THE DAY. LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SANDIA MANZANO RANGE UNDER A 80-90 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET MAX AT
THE BASE OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. THE RESULTANT ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE
REGIME WHERE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 10% SHOULD ALIGN
WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERC IN THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE RANGE) TO
SUPPORT THIS LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF EXTREMELY
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS UPDATE.
AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE AFTER THE INITIAL
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DETERIORATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES, REEMERGE A FEW HOURS LATER AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FALL CLOSE TO 0 F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 15% OR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING AMID 25-35 MPH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS COULD HAVE A
CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN RECEPTIVE FUELS SHOULD
THEY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WHERE THE DRIEST
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND HIGHER WINDS ALIGN. THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION SUNDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A GENERAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WAS MADE INTO
NORTHWESTERN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN OK, WITH ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL TX BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS.
..WILLIAMS.. 03/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0131 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON D2/SUNDAY, STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FROM D1/SATURDAY.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, BRINGING A SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH MAY
POSE A RISK WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS AROUND 10-15% WILL OVERLAP SUSTAINED WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 MPH. THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY INITIALLY IMPROVE POST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SECONDARY PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP NEAR 15% AGAIN
OVERLAPPING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 MPH. A LARGE CRITICAL
AREA WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS REMAINS.
BROADER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND
20-25% WILL OVERLAP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WHERE FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE DRYING OVER THE D1/D2
PERIOD.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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