056
ACUS11 KWNS 150456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150455
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-151000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 150455Z - 151000Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW BANDING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN THE
COMING HOURS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WITHIN A NARROW BAND ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IS APPARENT IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. RECENT VWP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAVE SHOWN A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS
(UPWARDS OF 50-60 KNOTS AT 1 KM AGL) WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF THE EMERGING CYCLONE. CONCURRENTLY, AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS NOTED FROM SOUTHWEST NE INTO SOUTHEAST SD AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS WELL AS
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
IN THE COMING HOURS, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL SHIFT
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST/NORTHEAST. ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER, INCLUDING THROUGH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH/HOUR.
A COMBINATION OF FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN A FRONTOGENETICAL 700 MB
DEFORMATION ZONE AND PERIODIC CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION (8.8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED IN AN UPSTREAM 00Z OAX SOUNDING AND
SHOULD BE ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE)
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES/HOUR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT GUIDANCE, THIS BAND
WILL MOST LIKELY EMERGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI DURING
THE 07-11 UTC TIME FRAME AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.
..MOORE.. 03/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 45338876 45318807 45178757 45028729 44778720 44338741
44068759 44078813 44149025 44169073 44049130 43519322
43169443 43079499 43159547 43409578 43699585 43969558
44469481 44809414 45149324 45339221 45389097 45338876
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