444
FNUS21 KWNS 150553
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
WESTERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING AND DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW, STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT
ENHANCEMENT OF WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
SHIFT TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY. MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
..NEW MEXICO, WESTERN TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR. AS OF 05Z, OBSERVED RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MORNING RANGES AROUND 25-30%. IT IS LIKELY THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
NEW D1 PERIOD THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST/WEST TEXAS, INCREASING
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30 MPH WILL OVERLAP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 10-15%. LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANDIA MANZANO RANGE UNDER A 80-90 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET MAX AT THE BASE OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. THE RESULTANT
ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE REGIME WHERE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND
10% SHOULD ALIGN WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERC IN THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE
RANGE) TO SUPPORT THIS LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF
EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS UPDATE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, TEMPERATURES COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE WITH A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY. DETERIORATING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REEMERGE A FEW
HOURS LATER AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL CLOSE TO 0 F ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN 15% OR LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AMID 25-35 MPH NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS COULD HAVE A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN
RECEPTIVE FUELS SHOULD THEY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TX
WHERE THE DRIEST POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AND HIGHER WINDS ALIGN. THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..THORNTON.. 03/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page