702
ACUS11 KWNS 151724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151723
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-151930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151723Z - 151930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A 992MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AT 17Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI WITH SOME LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AROUND 500 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STRONG INHIBITION FROM 12Z RAOB AT KSGF HAS ERODED SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THE 17Z SOUNDING WITH THE WARM NOSE BEING LIFTED 5000 FEET IN 5
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CONTINUED ASCENT AND
WARMING/MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE INHIBITION AND
PERMIT STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION, THE 500MB JET STREAK, THE NOSE OF
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS OKLAHOMA, WILL
EMERGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH STRENGTHENING MASS RESPONSE, WIND
FIELDS, AND FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT, A QLCS TORNADO THREAT IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TORNADO THREAT. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT 62-63F DEWPOINTS WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL QLCS TORNADO THREAT. THIS SEEMS
MOST LIKELY AFTER 22Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PERHAPS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PER THE 15Z HRRR.
MULTIPLE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO
ADDRESS THE EVOLVING THREAT.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 03/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 36619409 36999368 37609314 38669243 39199192 39909126
39969005 39818966 39458921 38508899 37598910 36948954
36489006 36519204 36529353 36619409
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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