303
ACUS11 KWNS 152040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152039
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...
VALID 152039Z - 152215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW53. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF ONGOING GOING CONVECTION, AND POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE RISK
WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW53, A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIED ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OK
INTO WESTERN AR. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS STILL
DESTABILIZING, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
F, RESULTING IN 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SO FAR, CAPPING HAS
REMAINED STOUT, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, SLOWING STORM
INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION. THE ARRIVAL OF ROBUST MID-LEVEL ASCENT
AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL ERODE REMAINING INHIBITION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, AND SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY, A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT, UNCLEAR IF DISCRETE PER-FRONTAL CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, SUPERCELLS WITH A POSSIBLE HIGHER
TORNADO RISK IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN SEVERE
RISK, THE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF WW53 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
..LYONS.. 03/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 32679539 35299385 36459299 36459096 34749123 33759134
33369143 32119253 31869316 31799341 31739381 31779481
31899534 32679539
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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