463
ACUS11 KWNS 160622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160621
ALZ000-160715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...
VALID 160621Z - 160715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A COUPLE STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN AL, A COUPLE STORMS ARE EVOLVING WITHIN A PLUME OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SURFACE CONFLUENCE. WHILE LINGERING
INHIBITION (SAMPLED BY 04Z BMX SOUNDING) AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS -- ESPECIALLY
BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE APPROACHING QLCS -- LARGE
CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS (AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) AND
AMPLE BUOYANCY WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A
SUPERCELL OR TWO. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING TORNADOES.
..WEINMAN.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31788805 32298778 33078701 33188670 33138636 32958611
32758614 32478633 31688712 31458751 31528799 31788805
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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