636
ACUS11 KWNS 160737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160737
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-160930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN NC/SC...NORTHERN/WESTERN GA...SOUTHEAST
AL...AND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160737Z - 160930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WATCH. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS A
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED QLCS ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
TN, FAR NORTHWEST GA, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL -- WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE LINE IN
AL. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES. DOWNSTREAM, THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (HIGHER
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT) AND AROUND 50 KT OF LINE-PARALLEL 0-6 KM
SHEAR (PER REGIONAL VWP). THIS, ALONG WITH A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET,
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE QLCS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE RISK WITH EASTWARD
AND NORTHWARD EXTENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS
AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO MAY CONTINUE, AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30678713 32798629 34798451 35138393 35098325 34828279
34448267 33918281 33018340 31068497 30458564 30258644
30328696 30678713
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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