027
ACUS11 KWNS 161002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161001
GAZ000-FLZ000-161130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GA INTO FAR NORTHERN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161001Z - 161130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...ALONG AND EAST OF A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
(PER VWP) EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO SC, BROAD/WEAK POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION AMID MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS AND
LIMITED INHIBITION IS YIELDING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE MOST OF THESE UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW, A
COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GA HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND POSE A RISK OF A TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND
THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE
WEAK/UNFOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO, AND THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN (THOUGH TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED).
..WEINMAN/HART.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30878470 31278470 32718350 33118281 33108227 32878194
32278184 31548216 31208235 30718284 30498367 30608436
30878470
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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