780
FNUS21 KWNS 161550
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VALID 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST...
AS A POTENT COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION TODAY, EXTENSIVE
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ELEVATED RISK AREA. THE CRITICAL
RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR OF
CLOUD DEBRIS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM INSOLATION
AND FUEL DRYING.
WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCALIZED NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FARTHER
NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, DRIVEN BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE THREAT IS TEMPERED BY A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHADING. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT; A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH,
COUPLED WITH RH VALUES OF 15-20%, WARRANTS AN EXPANSION OF THE
ELEVATED AREA. THIS EXPANSION NOW INCLUDES CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND A WESTWARD SHIFT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF WIND AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY
LAGS. ALL OTHER OUTLOOK AREAS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
..STEARNS/WILLIAMS.. 03/16/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0147 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
DRY, POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS AND FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.
..NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
DRY SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS WITHIN THIS
REGION REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF WINDY/DRY
CONDITIONS AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED AREA.
..SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD AN AREA FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DOWN TO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, WHERE A CRITICAL WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS
OUTLOOK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10-15% WILL OVERLAP NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS IN ADDITION TO
DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASE THAT ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AND NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHICH WAS ADDED
WITH THIS OUTLOOK AS SEVERAL NEW FIRES EMERGED ACROSS THIS REGION ON
SUNDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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