599
ACUS11 KWNS 161650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161649
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-161815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65...
VALID 161649Z - 161815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WW65 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. A LOCAL EXTENSION OR A
SMALL WATCH DOWNSTREAM MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN THE EXPECTED ONGOING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1645 UTC, MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE
ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM NORTHERN FL INTO
SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC. A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD,
EFFECTIVELY LIMITING NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
TO THE SOUTH. STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME
DAMAGING GUST AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION,
DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE LINE OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, AND POSSIBLY
WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE JAX CWA. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN
THIS, A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW65, OR A NEW SMALLER DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ARE BEING CONSIDERED TO COVER THE EXPECTED SEVERE RISK.
..LYONS/THOMPSON.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 29258095 29088117 29018146 29038231 29148291 29998391
30878348 32158239 32798131 32858052 32818024 32708008
32588007 32298051 31918086 31268126 30428137 29568103
29258095
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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