759
ACUS11 KWNS 161919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161919
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-162115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69...
VALID 161919Z - 162115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 69 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
WW69.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1915 UTC, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
WITHIN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM EAST-CENTRAL NC TO
COASTAL SC. THUS FAR, NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS AND WEAK BUOYANCY
(~500 J/KG MLCAPE 18Z MHX SOUNDING) HAVE LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION.
NUMEROUS, BUT TRANSIENT, LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS REMAIN
QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH ANY STRONGER
MESOCYCLONES ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
SOME CLEARING AS BEEN NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY CLUSTER OVER
CENTRAL NC. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED/MESSY
WITH CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. STILL, THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND
TORNADOES ACROSS WW69 THIS AFTERNOON.
..LYONS.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529
35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806
33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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