694
ACUS11 KWNS 162133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162132
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-162330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162132Z - 162330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MAY REACH SUFFICIENT INTENSITY FOR DAMAGING TO SEVERE
WINDS IN THE COMING HOURS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE ON HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS
LIMITED, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA AND CENTRAL NC.
DESPITE VERY POOR BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM (OWING TO PRIOR
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING), STRONG ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF A 120 KNOT 500 MB JET MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION.
REGIONAL VWPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE SHOWN AN UPTICK IN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 50-70 KNOTS WITHIN THE LOWEST KILOMETER. WIND
GUSTS SO FAR WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 35-45
KNOTS (ROUGHLY 40-50 MPH); HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION CAN INTENSIFY
FURTHER, DAMAGING TO SEVERE (50-65 MPH) GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE
PREVALENT AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE VIA
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW INTENSE THIS
CONVECTION CAN BECOME IN THE COMING HOURS - ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE
IN A SEVERE WIND THREAT IS LIMITED, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 03/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34677969 35777947 36747944 37777914 38297863 38527794
38527752 38407700 38067653 37707624 36907635 35687698
34987755 34537854 34487907 34487950 34497962 34677969
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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