167
ACUS11 KWNS 170105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170104
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-170300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INCLUDING WASHINGTON
D.C.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...
VALID 170104Z - 170300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND POSE A
RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE.
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN REFLECTIVITY AND VIL VALUES AS A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO A PLUME OF RETURNING MOISTURE (LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS). THE 00Z RAOB FROM IAD SAMPLED 372 J/KG SBCAPE, WHICH
WHILE MODEST, IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN AMPLE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE AND VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE (50 KNOT FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST KILOMETER). NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE LINE OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS, AS WELL AS OBSERVED GUSTS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH
(INCLUDING A 66 MPH GUST AT DULLES/KIAD). THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE LINE PUSHES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO A
SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS SAMPLED AT IAD.
BASED ON LATEST STORM TRACK ESTIMATES, THIS LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY AROUND 02 UTC AND MAY REACH WESTERN DELAWARE BY
AROUND 03 UTC.
..MOORE.. 03/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 36927592 36717639 36597674 36597702 36657718 36777726
37197720 37727727 38257740 38607741 38897729 39147700
39617569 39317528 38697498 38267507 37797531 37307565
36927592
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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