123
ACUS11 KWNS 170255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170255
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-170500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...
VALID 170255Z - 170500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
AS A SHALLOW SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS LINE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE COMING
HOUR OR SO, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO NJ AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON
RECENT VELOCITY DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH TIME, THIS BAND WILL
MOVE INTO A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S (WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S). BASED ON THE RECENT 00Z OKX
RAOB AND RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THESE TEMPERATURES (COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S) MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY COOL TO MODULATE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS. THAT SAID, THE KOKX VWP CONTINUES TO SAMPLE 70 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM, SO AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAY PERSIST INTO SOUTHERN NY AS THE LINE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT BEYOND THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERALL DEGRADATION OF BUOYANCY
WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT; DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
..MOORE.. 03/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
LAT...LON 38007563 38877564 39687561 41087545 41337523 41557442
41537402 41387357 41197321 40847303 40667305 40587336
40467369 40267380 39977389 39657400 39147445 38717478
38347496 38017510 37867521 37877539 37897550 38007563
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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