815
FNUS22 KWNS 170644
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING WILL BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS CENTRAL MT
TO EASTERN WY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH (80%) IN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL WY INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHEAST CO. A RESUMPTION
OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE
20-25% RANGE BASED ON ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. DRIER/MORE WELL-MIXED
SOLUTIONS HINT AT RH REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS THE 10-15% RANGE, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WY). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON MODEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES (AROUND
40-50% PROBABILITY OF RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 15%). REGARDLESS,
ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PRECEDING DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN DRY FUELS (AND/OR HELP CURE FINE FUELS IN
AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED PRECIPITATION) TO SUPPORT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..MOORE.. 03/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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